Regional Overview
Middle East
October 2024

Gaza: Intense fighting and evacuation orders in North Gaza as Israel launches a new operation

The launch of a new Israeli operation in the North Gaza governorate on 4 October resulted in the number of political violence events in the Gaza Strip increasing by 27% compared to the month prior. Intense fighting was reported between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas and other armed groups, including in the Jabaliya refugee camp, a primary stronghold for Hamas in northern Gaza, where the IDF conducted two previous operations in December 2023 and May 2024. Launching intense airstrikes and shelling, Israel has ordered residents of the north to evacuate their homes and shelters and move south.¹Doctors Without Borders, ‘Israeli forces pushing people from north to south Gaza will only worsen humanitarian catastrophe,’ 8 October 2024 While around 50,000 Palestinian civilians have left Jabaliya and the surrounding area, according to the Palestinian Civil Emergency Service around 100,000 people have remained.²Jack Khoury, ‘Palestinians Say 100,000 Residents Trapped in Israel’s North Gaza Offensive,’ Haaretz, 28 October 2024 At least 50% of IDF airstrikes and shelling incidents during the current operation have hit civilians or civilian infrastructure, including shelters, residential buildings, schools, and hospitals in North Gaza. In several instances, Israeli forces stated that Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants were using these sites. On 29 October, Israeli warplanes targeted a five-story building in Bayt Lahiya that was sheltering at least 150 displaced Palestinians, resulting in the deaths of over 90 people, including 20 children.³Peter Beaumont and Malak A Tantesh, ‘Israeli Airstrike on Beit Lahiya in Northern Gaza Leaves Scores Dead,’ The Guardian, 29 October 2024 

In total, over 1,100 people were killed in North Gaza during October, marking the deadliest month in this governorate in 2024. Israeli forces have also been systematically destroying empty houses and buildings, especially in the western parts of the camp and in Bayt Lahiya. Israel’s operation in Jabaliya appears aimed at decisively ending Hamas’s presence in North Gaza, but it may also have the broader objective of permanently clearing the area to create a buffer zone for the IDF, even after the active phase of the war ends.⁴Nadav Rapaport, ‘What is Israel’s “Generals’ Plan” and what does it mean for the war on Gaza?,’ Middle East Eye, 29 October 2024

In another significant development, Israeli troops killed Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief, along with three other operatives during clashes west of Rafah on 16 October. Sinwar was known as the mastermind behind the 7 October attack. It is unclear if the group’s next leader will be chosen from the more moderate ranks of Hamas based abroad. However, regardless of leadership, Hamas’ conditions for accepting a ceasefire and releasing hostages are unlikely to shift away from a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — a demand Israel categorically rejects.

Back to map

Iran and Israel: Israel conducts precise airstrikes in retaliation to Iran’s missile attacks

Iran and Israel exchanged strikes on each other’s territory in October, marking their most serious direct military confrontation to date. On 1 October, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched about 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel. The attack followed several months of Iranian restraint after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31 July in Tehran, likely due to concerns that Israel was trying to provoke Iran into an action that could draw the US into the conflict. However, following Israel’s significant escalation of hostilities against Iran’s key ally, Hezbollah, and amid statements from Israeli leaders suggesting an intent to reshape the regional order,⁵Andrew England and Neri Zilber, ‘Israel embarks on campaign to reshape regional order in the Middle East,’ The Irish Times, 5 November 2024 Iranian leadership reassessed its calculus. The 1 October attack was stronger than the previous round in April, with the IRGC using more advanced missiles and providing little warning beforehand. Despite the large number of interceptions, missiles fell in at least 16 locations in Israel and Palestine. Some missiles landed near Mossad headquarters at Glilot Base near Tel Aviv, while others directly hit the Nevatim and the Tel Nof military bases in Beer Sheva and Rehovot.

On 26 October, Israel retaliated by launching a series of precise airstrikes, mainly targeting military infrastructure in at least 13 locations across Tehran, Karaj, Ilam, Khuzestan, and Semnan. Four soldiers and a civilian security guard were reportedly killed in the attacks. The first wave of airstrikes targeted radars and air defense systems, including S-300 systems. Subsequent waves struck at least seven military facilities. Among these were the Khojir and Parchin sites where liquid- and solid-fuel missiles are produced, as well as the Shahrud Space Center, which is used for missile testing and motor assembly.⁶Oded Yaron, ‘Satellite Images Gradually Reveal Results of Israel’s Strikes in Iran,’ Haaretz, 30 October 2024 While Israel refrained from damaging Iranian oil production facilities amid US pressure,⁷Amir Tibon and Ben Samuels, ‘U.S., European Allies Urge Israel to Avoid Striking Iran’s Oil Sites, Fearing Global Economic Chaos,’ Haaretz, 5 October 2024 a tank at the Abadan refinery was hit, potentially as a warning of future attacks. In the potential event of future rounds of escalation, Iran may be more vulnerable to Israeli attacks due to the damage reported to its radars and air defense batteries.

Back to map

Iraq: Security forces step up attacks on ISIL

Throughout October, Iraqi security forces, supported by the US-led Global Coalition, intensified operations against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants across Iraq. Iraqi and coalition forces reportedly killed over 50 militants, making October 2024 the deadliest month for ISIL this year. On 22 October, the parliamentary security committee announced the killing of ISIL’s ‘first rank,’ so-called Wali of Iraq Jasem al-Mazrui Abu Abdel Qader, and eight senior leaders in Kirkuk, in addition to the ISIL commander of Salah al-Din province, who was killed on 20 October.⁸Kurdistan24, ‘Iraqi PM announces death of ISIS “Wali of Iraq”, eight senior ISIS leaders in southern Kirkuk operation,’ 23 October 2024; Al Maalomah, ‘Parliamentary Security: The first line of ISIS ended after the Hamrin operation,’ 23 October 2024; Basnews, ‘”Al-Bazi” and 3 other “terrorists” were killed by an F-16 strike in the Salah al-Din Operations Sector,’ 20 October 2024 The escalation of operations by the Global Coalition and Iraqi forces was prompted by a surge in ISIL activities during September that included 15 attacks, twice the attacks it conducted in the preceding month.

Back to map

Lebanon and Israel: Israel launches ground offensive across the border while Hezbollah steps up rocket attacks

The number of attacks by Israel in Lebanon increased by over 70% in October compared to the preceding month as Israel launched a ground offensive into southern Lebanon and significantly stepped up airstrikes. The IDF launched over 2,500 aerial attacks, mainly targeting Hezbollah’s strongholds in the south, the Bekaa Valley in the east, and the suburbs of Beirut. Several senior figures and commanders of Hezbollah were killed in October, including Hassan Nasrallah’s presumed successor Hashem Safieddine, as well as the deputy commander of the elite Radwan forces. Evacuation warnings were issued for dozens of towns and villages, covering nearly a quarter of Lebanon’s total territory,⁹United Nations, ‘Civilians and Peacekeepers at Risk Amid Escalating Lebanon Conflict,’ 23 October 2024 and an estimated 1.2 million people are believed to have been displaced.¹⁰Al Jazeera, ‘Death Toll from Israeli Attacks on Lebanon Surpasses 3,000: Health Ministry,’ 5 November 2024 The death toll from Israeli attacks in Lebanon since the start of hostilities in October 2023 has reached nearly 3,000, with one-third of these reported in October 2024. Hundreds of those killed are believed to be women and children, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health.¹¹Shafaq News, ‘Lebanese Health Ministry: Over 2,800 Killed Since October 2023,’ 2 November 2024 

Meanwhile, Israeli ground forces operated in at least 32 towns and villages along Lebanon’s border, spanning four districts from Tyre in the southwest, through Bint Jubayl in the center, to Marjayun and Hasbeiya in the southeast. Hezbollah forces engaged directly in armed clashes or fired rockets, anti-tank missiles, or mortars at Israeli forces on the ground in Lebanon in nearly 140 instances, reportedly killing over 30 Israeli soldiers. In the latest incident on 24 October, Hezbollah targeted Israeli troops with a barrage of rockets as they were receiving logistical supplies in a village in Lebanon, reportedly killing five soldiers and injuring 19 others.

Hezbollah also continued to fire rockets and drones into Israel. While thousands of attacks were intercepted, projectiles and drones landed or hit a target inside Israel in nearly 300 instances. Over 20 people were reportedly killed in these attacks, at least 14 of them civilians. This is the highest number of fatalities Hezbollah has inflicted inside Israel since October 2023. The geographic scope of Hezbollah’s attacks also expanded into central Israel, with a drone strike killing four Israeli soldiers and injuring 58 others near Binyamina, almost 70 kilometers south of the border. In another incident, a drone hit the home of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the central seaside town of Caesarea.

US diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah ahead of the US elections remained fruitless. While hostilities are expected to continue, it is not clear if Israel will expand its thus-far limited ground operation.

(For more on the expanding Israel-Hezbollah war, see this ACLED Q&A).

Back to map

Syria: The Syrian regime intensifies attacks on opposition-held areas in the north

Northern Syria saw a marked escalation in violence in October as the Syrian regime deployed reinforcements to the frontline areas between the regime and opposition rebels. Over 400 aerial and shelling strikes were carried out by Syrian regime and Russian forces, a significant increase from over 200 incidents in September. Strikes were reported across more than 100 unique locations in opposition-held areas, resulting in at least 31 fatalities among civilians, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and other opposition factions. Additionally, over 70 shelling incidents and armed clashes, as well as two intercepted suicide drone attacks by HTS and other opposition factions, were reported. These attacks resulted in at least 30 Syrian regime soldier fatalities. This increase in Russian-supported airstrikes occurred amid escalating tensions in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, and the potential redeployment of Hezbollah forces from Syria toward Lebanon. These airstrikes were strategically meant to demonstrate that Russia could fill any potential gaps left by Hezbollah’s withdrawal,¹²Syrian Observer, ‘Hezbollah Withdraws Forces from Syria to Strengthen Its Front in Lebanon Amid Rising Tensions,’ 24 September 2024 thereby signaling to the opposition factions that the frontlines in northwest Syria remain uncompromised. Hezbollah has previously played a crucial role in bolstering the Syrian regime’s defenses, particularly against groups like HTS.

Back to map

Yemen and Red Sea: US attempts to re-establish deterrence with intensified airstrikes

After a sharp decline in September, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea returned to increase in October, though remaining well below the 2024 monthly average. The attacks escalated in two main waves, primarily concentrated on 1 and 10 October, accompanied by drone and missile launches aimed at Israel. This rise in violence, primarily driven by evolving regional dynamics, prompted an unprecedented response from US forces.

The most significant attack hit the Panama-flagged oil tanker Cordelia on 1 October, targeted by four missiles and an explosive drone boat, with the latter striking directly and damaging the ship but causing no casualties.¹³Robert Tollast, ‘Houthis release video of devastating Red Sea attack on Cordelia Moon tanker,’ The National, 4 October 2024 Overall, ACLED records 13 attacks claimed by Houthi forces against commercial ships in October, seven of which were corroborated by non-Houthi sources. In addition, the Houthis claimed the launch of missiles and drones at Israel with ACLED recording 10 attacks, the highest monthly total since the Gaza crisis began.

US forces responded directly to this escalation with at least 22 attacks on Houthi military sites, primarily occurring in two waves on 4 and 16 October. This marks the highest number of events recorded since February. After the first wave, the US attempted to deter further Houthi activity by warning of consequences for continued attacks.¹⁴Al Masdar Online, ‘Informed source: US threat of “harsh response” behind decline in Houthi operations in the Red Sea,’ 16 October 2024 This warning led to the unprecedented use of B-2 stealth bombers in Yemen to destroy underground weapon storage facilities,¹⁵Bethan McKernan, ‘US attacks Houthi targets in Yemen with B-2 stealth bombers for first time,’ The Guardian, 17 October 2024 signaling a renewed effort to re-establish US deterrence. The Houthis began attacking ships in November 2023 in response to Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip and out of professed solidarity with Palestinians.

For more, see the Red Sea attacks interactive map created as part of the Yemen Conflict Observatory.

Back to map