Regional Overview
Latin America and the Caribbean
November 2024

Posted: 9 December 2024

In this Regional Overview

Bolivia: Pro-Morales demonstrations decrease despite persisting political and economic tensions
Brazil: An attack against the Supreme Court highlights political tensions over aborted coup attempt investigations
Haiti: Viv Ansanm exploits political infighting to escalate violence in Port-au-Prince
Mexico: Gang feuds intensify in Michoacán, Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas
Nicaragua: Constitutional reform locks in Ortega-Murillo’s authoritarian rule
Peru: President Boluarte faces mounting unrest over high extortion levels

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Bolivia: Pro-Morales demonstrations decrease despite persisting political and economic tensions

In the first week of November, supporters of former President Evo Morales lifted their 24-day-long roadblocks that were set to demonstrate against an arrest warrant against Morales. The roadblocks had been erected in mid-October across multiple parts of the country¹ amid growing political tensions between Morales and President Luis Arce over control of the ruling Movement to Socialism (MAS) party. The decision to lift them was intended as a gesture of Morales’ willingness to engage in dialogue² and drove a 36% decrease in demonstration activity in November compared to October. However, negotiations did not follow. Instead, the Constitutional Court ratified a ban on Morales’ candidacy in the 2025 elections,³ and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal handed the MAS presidency to Grover García, a supporter of the current government.⁴ Although these developments appear to give Arce the upper hand, his ongoing dispute with Morales is far from resolved and will likely continue impacting the country’s political and economic stability.

Meanwhile, Arce’s government faces economic challenges resulting from fuel and dollar shortages, which have been deepened by the roadblocks.⁵ In November, several key sectors – particularly farmers and public transportation and cargo drivers – mobilized against rising living costs, accounting for over a quarter of the country’s demonstration activity. Their mobilization reached its climax on 21 November, when over 10,000 people gathered in La Paz to demand the government address the fuel shortage and take action against rising inflation.⁶

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Brazil: An attack against the Supreme Court highlights political tensions over aborted coup attempt investigations

On 13 November, a former candidate for municipal council from Santa Catarina state affiliated with the Liberal Party — former President Jair Bolsonaro’s party — detonated explosives outside the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in Brasilia.⁷ The man acted alone and was killed in the attack after one of the explosives he was manipulating went off. The federal police linked the incident to the case overseen by STF judge Alexandre De Moraes concerning the 8 January 2023 riots, during which Bolsonaro supporters stormed the capitol building to prevent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from taking office.⁸ Days later, on 19 November, authorities arrested five members of the military close to Bolsonaro for plotting to assassinate Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and De Moraes in late 2022.⁹

Amid ongoing investigations into the coup plot, on 26 November, the federal police issued a report stating that Bolsonaro had knowledge and directly participated in the attempted coup.¹⁰ Bolsonaro is already barred from running for public office until 2030 following a separate ruling by the Superior Electoral Court in 2023.¹¹ However, he is still planning a political comeback in the 2026 elections and is still quite popular in Brazil.¹² Given the persistent political polarization in the country, investigations into Bolsonaro’s inner circle could fuel further unrest and violence from right-wing sectors, similar to the surge seen after the November 2022 presidential election.

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Haiti: Viv Ansanm exploits political infighting to escalate violence in Port-au-Prince

Political tensions between the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) and the government culminated in the removal of Prime Minister Garry Conille and the nomination of Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as the new prime minister on 11 November.¹³ This escalation followed a call by new TPC President Leslie Voltaire for a cabinet reshuffle. Conille countered Voltaire’s call by demanding the resignation of three TPC members implicated in a corruption scandal.¹⁴ Amid this instability, the Viv Ansanm gang alliance exploited the situation to expand its territorial control. Violence surged across the Ouest department, with a 68% increase in November compared to the month prior, particularly in Port-au-Prince, Delmas, and Petionville communes. Notable incidents included attacks near Fils-Aimé’s swearing-in ceremony, the targeting of the airport, and clashes with police forces. The spike followed threats by leading Viv Ansanm member Jimmy Cherizier, who called for an offensive and demanded the TPC’s resignation.¹⁵

Haitian police forces launched anti-gang operations to repel Viv Ansanm incursions in November. These operations were supported by self-defense groups, which were involved in 29% of clashes between security forces and gangs. On 19 November, at least 76 gang members affiliated with Viv Ansanm were killed in the metropolitan area. The rise in vigilantism reflects mounting frustration with the state’s inability to address the security crisis but also raises concerns about unchecked violence.

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Mexico: Gang feuds intensify in Michoacán, Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas

Internal disputes between the Sinaloa Cartel’s Los Mayitos and Los Chapitos factions continued to drive high violence levels across Sinaloa in November, particularly in Culiacán, Navolato, and Mazatlán municipalities. Despite authorities deploying hundreds of elite military personnel,¹⁶ the turf war led to the killing of over 100 people throughout November. The federal government under President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced plans for the deployment of federal forces across cartel-affected states such as Sinaloa and Michoacán,¹⁷ where security forces’ interventions already drove a 38% increase in violence involving armed groups in November.

In Michoacán, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) continued to war with Los Caballeros Templarios in Apatzingán, Buenavista, and Gabriel Zamora municipalities, with several clashes recorded on 8 November. Los Caballeros Templarios has sought to contain the expansion of the CJNG, which recently allied with Los Viagras gang, itself a former ally of Los Caballeros Templarios, and fight over the lucrative extortion of farmers in these and other municipalities of the Tierra Caliente region.¹⁸

Similarly, in Tamaulipas, violence involving armed groups doubled in November. On 22 November, the Los Escorpiones gang, a branch of the Gulf Cartel, killed six Los Zetas Vieja Escuela gang members and dumped their bodies in San Fernando municipality. Although the state governor announced the reinforcement of security operations in coordination with federal forces,¹⁹ organized crime groups have challenged security forces throughout November, launching drones equipped with explosives to attack security forces in Doroteo Arango and Gonzalés Villareal.

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Nicaragua: Constitutional reform locks in Ortega-Murillo’s authoritarian rule

On 22 November, Congress approved a bill to reform over 100 constitutional articles. The reforms reinforce the power of the Ortega-Murillo family, introducing a ‘co-presidency’ that will be exerted by President Daniel Ortega and his wife, the current Vice President Rosario Murillo, with equal presidential capacities. It also extends the presidential term to six years²⁰ and increases the executive’s power, which is now tasked to coordinate the legislature, judiciary, and electoral authorities.²¹ Human rights experts have raised concerns about the escalation of the regime’s repression with this reform, given that it undermines the balance of state powers and enlarges the regime’s control over civil and religious activities and the media.²² The reform was also accompanied by the approval of a law that forces banks to ignore international sanctions, which may result in banks facing fines, suspension of operations, and imprisonment of their executives.²³ Since the reform approval, the regime has arrested 30 activists, journalists, and opponents as of 28 November.²⁴ These arrests occur amid a broader crackdown on opposition members and the shrinking of civic space. Since the violent suppression of anti-government demonstrations in 2018, ACLED records a year-on-year decline in demonstration activity in Nicaragua.

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Peru: President Boluarte faces mounting unrest over high extortion levels

Between 13 and 15 November, labor unions staged a 72-hour national strike and marched to demand that President Dina Boluarte’s government take effective measures to fight rising criminality and extortion.²⁵ They also called for the abrogation of a reform to the Organized Crime Law, which was approved in August and limits the definition of criminal organizations to those with high and complex operational capacity.²⁶ According to representatives from several sectors, the law fails to set legal provisions against extortion and contract killings and limits police’s ability to carry out raids.²⁷ The call for mobilization prompted over 80 demonstrations in Lima and at least 15 regions, contributing to the highest monthly number of demonstrations recorded in 2024. Protests were mostly peaceful, although some clashes between demonstrators and police took place in Lima, Arequipa, and Sullana. Boluarte’s government has faced criticism over her handling of the security situation, especially increasing extortion and the violence associated with it.²⁸ Even though the government tried to rein in violent crime with the introduction of a state of emergency in 14 districts of Lima and Callao departments in September, the measure has failed to curb extortion and the perception of insecurity among citizens.²⁹

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Methodology

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María Fernanda Arocha

Maria Fernanda Arocha is the Central America Research Manager at ACLED and has been with the organization since October 2018. She currently leads the Central American desk, managing the coding team, supporting the review of data quality, and assisting in data analysis. María Fernanda holds a Master’s degree in Peace, Conflict, and Development from the University of Bradford and a B.A. in Political Science from Javeriana University. Her research interests are related to organized crime dynamics, security policies, and their impacts on development conditions in Latin America.

Laura Calderón Fuentes

Laura Calderon Fuentes is the Assistant Research Manager at the South America desk at ACLED. She has been with the organization since October 2021 and has previously worked as a researcher for the South America team sourcing and coding for different countries, primarily Colombia. Laura holds a BA in International Relations with a focus on Security, Peace, and Conflict from the Rosario University in Bogota and a Specialization Degree in Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law from the same University.

Monica Betancur

Monica Betancur is a South America researcher at ACLED and has been with the organization since August 2022. In her position, she is primarily responsible for coding events of political violence and protests mainly in Chile and Brazil, based on data from partner organizations in these countries. She holds a Master’s degree in Peace Building and Conflict Studies from Hamburg University and a degree in Political Science from Eafit University in Medellin. Monica has over four years of experience researching transnational organized crime in Latin America and peacebuilding processes in Colombia.

Category: Regional Overviews9 December 2024