The Complexity of Disorder in India

Analysis, Asia, Civilians At Risk, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Inequality, Political Stability, Poverty, Pro-Government Militias, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
As India celebrated its 72nd Independence Day on 15 August 2018, the country continues to face multiple and complex challenges. Disorder—including political violence and protests—is increasingly multidimensional, complex, and evolving (OECD, 2016; United Nations & World Bank, 2018).…

How Lebanon’s Disengagement from the Syrian Civil War Changed Violence in the Country

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Middle East, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Remote Violence, Unidentified Armed Groups, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
The 2017 Qalamoun offensive (see here for more on this topic) disengaged Lebanese territory from the Syrian Civil War resulting in greater stability in Lebanon. This can be seen in the overall reduction in the number of political violence events and reported fatalities in the country following the end of the offensive.…

The Islamic State in Yemen

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Middle East, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Unidentified Armed Groups, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
Since its formation in November 2014, the Yemeni branch of the Islamic State (IS) has undergone major changes in its organisation and tactics. Thanks to a more radical stance that has attracted several fighters from the Salafist movement and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the group has contributed to increasing sectarianism in Yemen.…

IS After ‘Defeat’: Guerilla Tactics in the Desert

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Improvised Explosive Devices, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Middle East, Political Stability, Violence Against Civilians
A particularly pressing question for policy-makers is the form and intensity of violence to expect from IS now that it lost its control of Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zor and Al-Bukamal. Since the defeat in Al-Bukamal (November 2017), IS has split into various groups.…

US Involvement in Yemen

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
The United States military began conducting operations against Al-Qaeda in Yemen shortly after US lawmakers passed Joint Resolution 23, which authorized the use of military force against “those nations, organizations, or persons” involved in the September 11 attacks against the United States in 2001 (S.J.Res.23…

Increasing Political Violence in the Central African Republic

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, LRA, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Resources, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
In the first half of 2018, political violence in the Central African Republic has both increased and spread to new regions. See the maps of Aug-Dec 2017 and Jan-May 2018 to observe the spread of violence across new regions.…

From the Mali-Niger borderlands to rural Gao – Tactical and geographical shifts of violence

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Current Hotspots, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Fulani, Human Rights, Improvised Explosive Devices, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
In late April and early May, six massacres took place in the Mali-Niger border corridor. Presumed militants of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) carried out massacres against the Dawsahak community.…

Alleged Chemical Incidents in Syria

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Current Hotspots, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Government Repression, Middle East, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Remote Violence, Unidentified Armed Groups, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
Chemical incidents have perhaps been the only consistent factor shaping the United States’ position on the civil war in Syria before and after Trump’s election. A chemical attack on Eastern Ghouta in August 2013 prompted an imminent attack, led by the Obama administration.…