Following the completion of the initial beta testing phase, ACLED is pleased to launch an updated and expanded version of the Early Warning Research Hub — our new suite of interactive resources aimed at facilitating data-driven initiatives to anticipate and respond to emerging crises.
The risks of rising political violence, and the early warning signs to predict these risks, are multifaceted — no single tool can identify every threat. By offering an array of interactive and interconnected tools, the Early Warning Research Hub allows users to track a variety of different risk factors, across a range of contexts, in a way that meets their distinct needs. From practitioners mapping conflict trends in a specific country or region, to global researchers looking for a pipeline of tools to identify new hotspots to monitor each week, the Hub has the necessary resources to forecast violent conflict — all in one place.
The updated Early Warning Research Hub hosts three expanded tools adapted from the original beta phase — the Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers, the Volatility & Risk Predictability Index, and the Conflict Change Map — as well as a brand new tool: the Emerging Actor Tracker.
Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers
Use the Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers to pinpoint local-level spikes in violence. The two interactive dashboards track all first-order administrative divisions (e.g. states, provinces, governorates) around the world and identify areas that have registered significant increases in political violence.
Access the tool here.
Volatility & Risk Predictability Index
The Volatility & Risk Predictability Index tracks rates of positive deviations from baseline violence levels to assess the frequency and intensity of conflict surges. Rather than predict conflict rates far into the future with limited applicability, the index evaluates the stability and frequency of patterns of high and low violence rates in specific areas, offering practical information to support trend monitoring in fast-moving conflict environments. First-order administrative divisions classified as areas of extreme risk by the index are flagged in the tool’s weekly watchlist.
Access the tool here.
Conflict Change Map
The global Conflict Change Map identifies countries experiencing rising political violence levels based on comparisons of conflict rates over time. The dashboard displays two filled maps of the world, highlighting countries that have registered a large increase in violence during the past month relative to the past year and during the past week relative to the past month, respectively. Countries that register major increases of more than 25% are added to the tool’s weekly watchlist for closer monitoring.
Access the tool here.
Emerging Actor Tracker
The Emerging Actor Tracker monitors the presence of new violent non-state actors within countries over the past month. It highlights the names of groups that have recently emerged in the country. An ‘emerging actor’ is one that engages in violence in the most recent month, yet has not been active within the country over the past year, or ever before. This allows the tool to capture latent groups, as well as new groups, and enables users to track the impact of actor proliferation on different conflict environments and assess the threat posed by emergent actor activity to civilians.
Access the tool here.
ACLED will continue to develop and build on the Early Warning Research Hub, refining existing tools and adding new resources to the platform over time. Check back for future updates.
We invite users to experiment with the updated tools and share feedback on the Hub.
For questions and comments, please contact [email protected].
For media inquiries about ACLED’s early warning work, please contact [email protected].
© 2022 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). All rights reserved.
