Nigeria – April 2017 Update
Levels of political conflict have continued to decrease in Nigeria throughout 2017. The drop in political violence seems to stem from the reduced activity of two of Nigeria’s most active and lethal conflict actors, the Fulani and Boko Haram (see Figure 1).…
Sudan – March 2017 Update
Sudan witnessed a decrease in violent political conflict in March which marked a continuation of falling levels of political violence in the country. The decrease in political violence seems to be related to the resilience of the ongoing ceasefire which encompasses a large number, but not all, of the active rebel groups.…
Mali – March 2017 Update
In terms of number of events, March 2017 was the most violent month in Mali since early 2013, when France began Operation Serval against Islamist rebel groups in the north of the country.…
Ivory Coast – February 2017 Update
Ivory Coast witnessed a dramatic decrease in political conflict in February due to the apparent resolution of two mutinies which destabilised the country in January. The mutinies represent the biggest episode of political instability since the 2011 political crisis and exposed deep weaknesses in a country that has been lauded as a model of post-conflict reconstruction.…
Guinea – February 2017 Update
In February, Guinea witnessed the highest levels of political violence and protest since the presidential elections in October 2015 (see Figure 1). Over the past month, Guinea suffered a nationwide strike which spiralled into violence leaving eight people dead, infrastructure destroyed and left the capital city, Conakry, paralysed.…
Conflict Trend Summaries 2016
Kenya Kenya saw a decrease in political violence and reported fatalities in 2016. The vast majority of fatalities in 2016 still came from Al Shabaab activity. The country also saw a spike in demonstrations in June over whether the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) should be reformed before the general elections of August 2017 (Africa Confidential, 10 June 2016).…
Central African Republic – December 2016 Update
The Central African Republic witnessed an encouraging overall decrease in lethal political violence during the first half of 2016. However, this was followed by a dramatic jump in violence from September to November which stems from the failure of the new regime in Bangui to forge a political settlement that appeals to the increasingly fractured Seleka coalition and other militia groups (see Figure 1).…
Zimbabwe – October 2016 Update
The number of political violence and protest events increased over the past month in Zimbabwe. The spike in violence is largely due to an increase in the incidence of violence against civilians, which doubled between August and September (see Figure 1).…