United States: Intensifying Polarization and the Looming Presidential Election

The United States presidential election represents looming uncertainty for the country’s democratic institutions and domestic stability. Former President Donald Trump seems assured of clinching the Republican nomination and challenging sitting President Joe Biden in November 2024.¹Philip Bump, ‘No one in the modern era has blown a primary lead as wide as Trump’s,’ The Washington Post, 29 November 2023 Trump, who is essentially tied with Biden in the latest polls,²Jennifer Agiesta, ‘CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch,’ CNN, 7 November 2023 is indicted in four separate criminal cases, including charges of election fraud over the 2020 election.³Laura Italiano, Jacob Shamsian, and Jake Swearingen, ‘Trump court cases: A list of all current and pending legal cases on the ex-president’s docket,’ Business Insider, 26 November 2023 For his part, President Biden is already the oldest president in US history, with an approval rating that has remained below 50% for over two-and-a-half years.⁴Brian Bushard, ‘Biden’s Approval Rating Drops To Seven-Month Low—Hitting 39%, Poll Finds,’ Forbes, 7 November 2023

Demonstrations and far-right activity peaked in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, culminating in a riot on 6 January 2021 at the US Capitol. Additional destabilizing factors were present in 2020, including surging political organizing around the Black Lives Matter movement and blowback from COVID-19 restrictions. Still, as the election is projected to come down to the same two candidates, there is cause for concern that conspiracies about the election, including claims of voter fraud, and election-related far-right organizing may present challenges to the country’s domestic security, as they did around the 2020 election. 

The final year of Trump’s presidency saw elevated far-right militia and militant social movement activity compared to the latter half of 2023. The majority of these groups’ public organizing in the lead-up to the 2020 election was explicitly in support of Trump. Militia and militant social movement organizing spiked to its highest levels in November 2020, the month of the election, with a secondary peak in January 2021 amid Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud. Far-right groups have continued to organize throughout the Biden presidency, though at reduced levels, partly because many of these groups’ leaders, as well as rank-and-file members, were convicted on charges related to their role in planning the attack on 6 January, and partly because of changing political conditions. Following the arrests of Stewart Rhodes, the founder and leader of the Oath Keepers, and Enrique Tarrio, the then-national chairman of the Proud Boys, in early 2022, both groups saw a steep decline in activity. 

Though the far-right landscape has appeared calmer throughout Biden’s presidency, several far-right groups became active for the first time in 2023, particularly neo-Nazi groups such as regional chapters of ‘active clubs,’ which are loosely affiliated with the Rise Above Movement. Indeed, neo-Nazis and other white nationalists have participated in a growing number of demonstrations and other organizing activities during the Biden presidency. 

What to watch for in 2024

This current turbulence in the US threatens to reinvigorate smoldering domestic divides in the lead-up to the elections. A contentious campaign period may lead to intimidation and violence at polling places, as well as renewed mobilization by opportunistic far-right groups around claims of voter fraud, anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, and access to abortion.

Though much has changed since 2020, far-right militant social movements and militia groups are likely to once again seize the opportunity that an election year provides to gain attention and intensify mobilization. New groups may aim to make a name for themselves in the pre-election period, while those that have steadily receded from the public eye since Trump left office may seek their own comebacks. Other groups, like the Proud Boys, which have regularly organized demonstrations across the country under Biden’s administration, will likely see the election as an opportunity to step up their activity. Likewise, white nationalist groups like Patriot Front and ‘active clubs’ can be expected to continue to spread across the country, recruit aggressively, and hold regular unarmed combat training sessions. These groups have increasingly collaborated with one another, forming networks and participating in demonstrations together, indicating the potential for a better-organized white supremacist faction in 2024. 

However, despite their prior alignment with former President Trump, far-right groups have not recently mobilized to support him, even after he directly called for protests in the leadup to an indictment in March 2023.⁵Vera Bergengruen, ”He Betrayed Us”: Why Trump’s Call to Protest Is Flopping,’ Time, 21 March 2023 Still, these groups are often opportunistic and are unlikely to shy away from a massive opportunity to recruit, receive attention, and mobilize sympathy. In the event that Trump is convicted of any of the criminal charges he is facing and sentenced to prison, or if his removal from the ballot in states like Colorado and Maine is upheld, far-right groups would likely cry foul and attempt to mobilize supporters. Even if Trump is not convicted, or if he does not claim that election fraud has taken place, multiple scenarios in the 2024 election could embolden far-right groups.

If former President Trump loses the election and attributes his defeat to voter fraud, as he has done in the past, his supporters are likely to call for action. Far-right groups may seize upon mass outrage in such a moment to escalate tensions and demand more dramatic pushback, including violence. Indeed, though far-right groups participated in just over a fifth of “stop the steal” demonstrations supporting Trump’s claims that the election was rigged against him in November 2020 and January 2021, they participated in over 90% of those that turned violent, culminating in the riot at the US Capitol. They also took part in the majority of demonstrations alleging voter fraud following the 2022 election, particularly in the state of Arizona, which has been a hotbed of far-right organizing in recent years. Trump has recently asserted that prosecutors trying him for attempting to overturn his 2020 election defeat are intentionally damaging his chances of re-election in 2024⁶Andrew Goudsward, ‘US aims to show Trump’s history of vote fraud claims at 2020 election trial,’ Reuters, 5 December 2023 and has already called on his supporters to help “guard the vote.”⁷Ali Swenson and Michelle R. Smith, ‘Trump tells supporters, ‘Guard the vote.’ Here’s the phrase’s backstory and why it’s raising concern,’ Associated Press, 6 December 2023 Because a narrative of voter fraud has persisted since 2020, voters and far-right groups alike may be more alert to the issue and therefore more likely to mobilize around it.

Beyond former President Trump acting as a lightning rod for political organizing, several issues that have been particularly salient in the lead-up to the elections could also spark increased tensions. ACLED has previously flagged anti-LGBTQ+ mobilization as an important trend in the US, and June 2023, commemorated as Pride Month, saw the highest number of anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations in ACLED’s US data, as well as the highest single-month levels of far-right activity in 2023. An even larger wave of pro-LGBTQ+ solidarity demonstrations took place in response, with groups including the John Brown Gun Club organizing armed security for LGBTQ+ events. Battle lines have been drawn around the issue, which is likely to gain increased prominence in early 2024 as state legislatures reconvene, and will certainly be highly visible around Pride Month in June. Similarly, abortion has proved to be a pivotal issue in US electoral politics. State-level legislation has rapidly diverged on the issue, which, according to many analysts, has played a decisive role in several close contests in elections since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, including a Republican underperformance in the 2022 midterms.⁸Danielle Kurtzleben, ‘What we know (and don’t know) about how abortion affected the midterms,’ NPR, 25 November 2022 

Multiple scenarios in 2024 would constitute a perilous stress test for American democratic institutions and domestic stability. Though the increasingly fragmented far-right is difficult to predict, emboldened white nationalists and organizing around Trump, migration, and anti-LGBTQ+ issues are likely to be prevalent themes in 2024. Beyond its borders, the outcome of the US presidential election will also have profound influence on neighboring Mexico, with the Democratic and Republican front-runners supporting different policies to tackle drug and human smuggling, including calls to intervene militarily against the cartels. Both the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election and its aftermath represent a watershed moment in US history.