Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
August 2023

Posted: 8 September 2023

Afghanistan: NRF activity increases as the second anniversary of Taliban takeover is marked

As the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan marked its second anniversary in August, anti-Taliban groups, including the National Resistance Front (NRF), escalated their armed attacks against the Taliban. Much of this increase was driven by an outbreak of clashes between the NRF and the Taliban in Badakhshan province, an opposition stronghold in the northeast of the country. The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts ongoing activity in the region in the coming month, predicting an 86% increase in events in Badakhshan for September relative to the 12-month average. Overall, across Afghanistan, the number of clashes between the NRF and the Taliban in August was twice that recorded in July. The NRF has sought to target provinces surrounding Panjshir,¹ recently claiming to have established bases in remote areas of the Hindu Kush.² Meanwhile, the Taliban continued to arrest and mistreat residents of Panjshir, and in Baghlan province, the Taliban displaced families accused of supporting the NRF.³ Since the fall of Kabul, civilians in areas of anti-Taliban resistance have been targeted by the Taliban (for more, see ACLED’s report: Two Years Of Repression: Mapping Taliban Violence Targeting Civilians in Afghanistan).

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Indonesia: Increased separatist violence in Papua

August saw increased separatist violence in Papua as Indonesia marked its Independence Day on 17 August. The West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) engaged in at least 11 armed clashes with Indonesian security forces in Papua – double the number of clashes recorded in July. The TPNPB also burned several government buildings and public facilities, including the General Election Commission regional hub. Both separatists and state forces also engaged in civilian targeting during the month. ACLED records more political violence in Papua thus far in 2023 than was recorded in all of 2022. The violence comes ahead of elections planned for next February (for more, see ACLED’s report: Papuan Independence and Political Disorder in Indonesia).

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Myanmar: Spike in PSLF/TNLA activity in northern Shan state

Fighting between the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and military and allied militia forces escalated in August in northern Shan state. Clashes between the two sides more than doubled in August compared to the previous month. Fighting was concentrated in Muse township near the Myanmar-China border,⁴ where clashes began after the military and allied militia forces advanced into PSLF/TNLA territory on 2 August.⁵ Fighting continued throughout August, with the most recent incidents occurring near Sei Lant village towards the end of the month. During these clashes, the military conducted heavy shelling and resorted to airstrikes, resulting in civilian casualties and the displacement of hundreds of residents.⁶ The PSLF/TNLA had initially avoided direct confrontation with the military following the 2021 coup, though it provided some support for anti-coup resistance forces.⁷ However, fighting resumed in July as a result of the military’s offensive operations following failed peace talks held in June.⁸ The talks facilitated by China, between the junta’s National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee and the Brotherhood Alliance, of which the PSLF/TNLA is part, ended without any progress as the groups declined to discuss the junta’s planned election.⁹

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Pakistan: Increasing demonstrations as parliament dissolved ahead of general elections

Pakistan’s National Assembly was dissolved on 9 August in anticipation of general elections. While elections would usually be held in 90 days, the Election Commission of Pakistan called for the elections to be delayed in order to re-draw constituencies following the recent census.¹⁰ Such a delay would push elections into next year. It remains to be seen whether the caretaker government will accept this delay or move forward with elections. August also saw the arrest and sentencing of former Prime Minister and Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan on corruption charges. While his three-year jail sentence was suspended later in the month, at the time of writing, he remains in custody under a separate charge related to allegations of leaking state secrets.¹¹ ACLED records around two dozen demonstrations held by the PTI in August in support of Khan, less than the more than 250 held by his party in May following his previous arrest. The decline in demonstrations reflects the crackdown on the PTI leadership and the exodus of many party members following the May events.¹² Meanwhile, as Pakistan prepares for elections, there are increasing demonstrations over rising electricity bills, the price of petrol, and increased inflation.

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Papua New Guinea: Tribal violence ongoing in Enga province

Tribal conflicts in Enga province continued in August. In one of the most graphic acts of violence, armed men from the Ambulin tribe dragged the naked corpses of hired gunmen behind a vehicle after they killed the gunmen in Wapenamanda on 18 August. The hired gunmen, who were from the Sikin and Kaekin tribes, were attempting a raid in Ambulin territory. Amid the unrest in Enga province, the government planned to send additional military and police units to the province¹³ and police authorized the use of ‘lethal force.’¹⁴ The unrest in August occurred despite the implementation of a three-month lockdown including curfews and travel restrictions in the province in late July.¹⁵ A meeting of the Mine Development Forum concerning the reopening of the Porgera gold mine in Enga, which has long been a source of disorder in the region,¹⁶ was also relocated outside of the province. Tribal violence in the country, which has become more deadly with the increased use of high-powered firearms, is often attributed to the weakened rule of law in the Highlands.¹⁷ Enga is the site of regular outbreaks of violence between multiple tribal groups, with ACLED recording dozens of incidents of intercommunal violence in the last 12 months. However, the number of events is likely underreported, with less-deadly events receiving less coverage and challenges in reporting leading to less comprehensive coverage of tribal conflict. The violence in Papua New Guinea comes against the backdrop of renewed geopolitical interest in the Pacific Island region.¹⁸

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Thailand: Pheu Thai Party forms a government

The Pheu Thai Party (PTP), in coalition with 10 other parties, formed a government in August, with PTP-nominated businessman Srettha Thavisin elected by the parliament as prime minister on 22 August.¹⁹ The PTP-led coalition includes two military-backed parties, Palang Pracharath and the United Thai Nation Party, in defiance of a prior memorandum of understanding jointly drafted with the Move Forward Party (MFP) – the winner of the May 2023 general election – and six other parties.²⁰ The progressive MFP maintained its commitment to amending the lèse-majesté law, which led to its exclusion from the PTP-led coalition.²¹ The political maneuvering following the elections, and the denial of MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s bid for the prime ministership, led to a spike in demonstrations in July which tapered off in August. Still, the PTP’s decision to form a coalition with military-backed parties has angered its supporters,²² including the ‘red-shirt’ United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) that staged two protests in August. The PTP’s decision to ally itself with the same military actors who staged a coup against their government in 2014 was also seen as part of a larger bargain. On the same day that the PTP government was formed, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, the founder of PTP, whose Thai Rak Thai Party government was ousted by an earlier military coup in 2006, returned to Thailand after 15 years in exile²³ (for more, see ACLED’s Election Watch report on Thailand).

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Methodology

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