The Complexity of Disorder in India

As India celebrated its 72nd Independence Day on 15 August 2018, the country continues to face multiple and complex challenges. Disorder—including political violence and protests—is increasingly multidimensional, complex, and evolving (OECD, 2016; United Nations & World Bank, 2018).…

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen: A Continued Threat?

As pressure from UAE-backed troops and US airstrikes has increased over the past two years, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) fighters have found themselves engaged on multiple fronts, weakening their ability to control and manage territory.…

How Lebanon’s Disengagement from the Syrian Civil War Changed Violence in the Country

The 2017 Qalamoun offensive (see here for more on this topic) disengaged Lebanese territory from the Syrian Civil War resulting in greater stability in Lebanon. This can be seen in the overall reduction in the number of political violence events and reported fatalities in the country following the end of the offensive.…

Will the Military’s Focus on the Fulani Threat Allow for a Resurgence of Boko Haram?

On 4 February, the Nigerian government declared that it had defeated Boko Haram (see ACLED, 12 April 2018 for further detail). However, although air and land forces continue to conduct successful raids against the remaining Boko Haram positions in the Lake Chad region, the sect has proved remarkably difficult to rout.…

The Islamic State in Yemen

Since its formation in November 2014, the Yemeni branch of the Islamic State (IS) has undergone major changes in its organisation and tactics. Thanks to a more radical stance that has attracted several fighters from the Salafist movement and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the group has contributed to increasing sectarianism in Yemen.…