Understanding Inter-Ethnic Conflict in Myanmar

While most of the political violence in Myanmar arises from the conflicts between the Myanmar military and the many ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in the country, inter-ethnic conflict has increased in recent years. One such conflict is that between the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan…

The Complexity of Disorder in India

As India celebrated its 72nd Independence Day on 15 August 2018, the country continues to face multiple and complex challenges. Disorder—including political violence and protests—is increasingly multidimensional, complex, and evolving (OECD, 2016; United Nations & World Bank, 2018). Multiple types of disorder can co-occur across states, can interact, and may involve different agents as well…

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen: A Continued Threat?

As pressure from UAE-backed troops and US airstrikes has increased over the past two years, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) fighters have found themselves engaged on multiple fronts, weakening their ability to control and manage territory. While AQAP remains a major threat to Yemeni society, a decreasing number of claimed operations by the…

The Saudi-Yemeni Border Conflict

Since the beginning of Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaign in support of Yemeni president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi in 2015, Houthi forces have consistently mounted counter-attacks targeting border posts and cities along Saudi Arabia’s southern border. Although many attacks are conducted by militias fighting guerilla style, there has recently been an increase in the number of missile…

How Lebanon’s Disengagement from the Syrian Civil War Changed Violence in the Country

The 2017 Qalamoun offensive (see here for more on this topic) disengaged Lebanese territory from the Syrian Civil War resulting in greater stability in Lebanon. This can be seen in the overall reduction in the number of political violence events and reported fatalities in the country following the end of the offensive. The increased stability…

Shepherds – An Overrepresented Insurgent Target Group

A low-level insurgency in Tunisia’s western mountains is taking an increasing toll on civilians, particularly shepherds, in the first half of 2018. Beginning in the wake of the 2010 Revolution, there has been an ongoing insurgency of intermittent intensity in Tunisia. In 2015, there were several high-profile terror attacks against tourist sites and security personnel,…

Will the Military’s Focus on the Fulani Threat Allow for a Resurgence of Boko Haram?

On 4 February, the Nigerian government declared that it had defeated Boko Haram (see ACLED, 12 April 2018 for further detail). However, although air and land forces continue to conduct successful raids against the remaining Boko Haram positions in the Lake Chad region, the sect has proved remarkably difficult to rout. There have been minimal…

The Islamic State in Yemen

Since its formation in November 2014, the Yemeni branch of the Islamic State (IS) has undergone major changes in its organisation and tactics. Thanks to a more radical stance that has attracted several fighters from the Salafist movement and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the group has contributed to increasing sectarianism in Yemen. As…