The Prospects of Islamic State Expansion into Africa & an Analysis of State and Non-State Actor Strategies

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Violence Against Civilians
In November 2014, The Islamic State’s recruitment and propaganda publication ‘Dabiq’ announced a strategy to ‘remain’ and ‘expand’ (The Clarion Project, 21 November 2014) in order to consolidate its existing territorial presence whilst spreading the caliphate regionally, and eventually globally to promote disorder and disruption.…

Tunisia — July 2015 Update

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Local-Level Violence, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
While a new series of violent events targeted civilians and security forces in June, Tunisia witnessed a sustained increase in political violence (see Figure 1). Not only is the number of conflict events rising, reported fatalities were also at their highest since January 2011.…

Mali — July 2015 Update

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Focus On Militias, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Violence Against Civilians
Mali’s current outlook can be termed as cautiously optimistic, although significant challenges remain following the signing of a peace treaty between the Government of Mali and representatives of the Tuareg-led rebels from the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA) on June 20 (Al Jazeera, June 21, 2015).…

Al Shabaab in Tanzania: Current Status and Potential Future Patterns

Africa, Al Shabaab, Focus On Militias, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Local-Level Violence, Pro-Government Militias, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Although Tanzania holds a reputation for peace and stability, the country has experienced an increase in violent Islamist-related activity in 2015. The most recent attack occurred on the 14th of April in the eastern Morogoro Region (see Figure 1), when a suspected Al Shabaab militant attacked a police officer with a machete.…

The Break of Dawn? Shifting Interests and Opportunities in the Libya Dawn Bloc

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Islamist Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Libya was the fifth most active country in the ACLED dataset in February 2015 with an average of 4 fatalities incurred for every conflict event (see Figure 1). The recent wave of attacks by Islamic State groups has prompted widespread discussion of the role of Islamist groups such as the Shura Council of Islamic Youth, Ansar al-Sharia, Islamic State of Tripoli and the Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade in the political negotiation process mediated through the UN.…

Where’s ISIS in all this crisis?

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Violence Against Civilians
The Egyptian air force’s bombing campaign in Libya’s eastern city of Derna on the 16th February in retaliation of the killing of 21 Coptic Egyptians has sought to raise fundamental questions over the extent and reach of the Islamic State’s presence in Libya. …

Counter-revolution, Autocracy, and Stability in Egypt in 2014

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Islamist Violence, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
The most significant trend witnessed throughout 2014 in Egypt was the dramatic decline of riot and protest events nationwide (see Figure 1). Sweeping detentions of Muslim Brotherhood supporters, unconstitutional civilian and military trials, and the introduction of legislation that curtails representation has seen Egypt slip into a counter-revolution reminiscent of past regimes under Mubarak in the late 1980s, and Nasser’s government in the 1950’s (Origins, July 2014).…

A Review of Libya in 2014

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Governance, Islamist Violence, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Libya was the fourth most active and the sixth most violent country in the ACLED dataset with 2383 reported fatalities from battles and remote violence in 2014. The deterioration of security in Libya throughout 2014 has been characterized by a myriad of factional armed groups with complex competing claims and two divided governments mobilizing competing narratives in the pursuit of ‘political legitimacy’.…