Mexico ranks among the world’s most extreme conflicts in the ACLED Conflict Index, a position it is unlikely to cede, as the flow of people and drugs to the United States — two key drivers of conflict between criminal groups — are at all-time highs, while the 2024 general elections are likely to kindle political violence.
ACLED records violence targeting local officials across Mexico – with events in all 32 states. However, some of the highest levels of violence targeting administrators were recorded in Oaxaca and Chiapas states, where ACLED records have relatively lower levels of events likely related to gang violence – challenging the narrative that political violence in Mexico is a function of organized crime alone. As political competition and power dynamics contribute to widespread violence, particularly around election cycles, the next general elections scheduled for June 2024 are likely to exacerbate tensions.
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