Emergency Rule and Insurgency in Egypt

Despite the overall decrease in conflict and protest events taking place in the country, Egypt continues to face a growing insurgency based in the North Sinai province. Since declaring allegiance to the Islamic State in November of 2014 the State of Sinai has launched numerous attacks against state forces and has claimed responsibility for a…

Egypt – February 2017 Update

February saw a shift in the strategy of the Sinai Province militant group as attacks on Coptic Christian civilians and a resumption of aggression towards Israel replaced attacks against police officers and roadside bombings that had occurred since 2013. Seven Coptic Christian deaths at the hands of Islamist militants in one week led to civilians…

Egypt – November 2016 Update

Political violence and protest events in Egypt have been rising since August 2016, largely driven by two dynamics. First, protests have rebounded nationwide coinciding with a seven-year high inflation rate of 15.5 percent in August (NYTimes, 20 October 2016). Second, violence against civilians reached its highest level since February 2016 as kidnappings surged in North…

The Geography of Riots and Protests

Since 2013, riots and protests have been the dominant political expression recorded in African countries in the ACLED dataset. Populations took to the streets to express their grievances at a higher rate than more violent organised activity conducted by rebel groups or political militias. In 2016, the recent protests in the Oromia region of Ethiopia,…

Egypt — April 2016 Update

The number of reported abuses committed by Egyptian police forces dropped in March following a turbulent four months. Between November 2015 and February 2016, police forces perpetrated an average of 58% of all violence against civilians as old tensions between the Interior Ministry and ruling regime once again boiled to the surface (Africa Confidential, 18…

Egypt — January 2016 Update

January saw the Egyptian military forces redouble their efforts against Islamic militants and the State of Sinai group in the North Sinai towns of Al-Arish, Sheikh Zuweyid and Rafah. ACLED data recorded 120 fatalities as a result of the ‘Retribution for the Martyr’ military operation. And as the Egyptian tourism sector struggles to recover from…

African Overview 2015

In 2015, ACLED recorded 14,640 conflict events on the African continent. Armed conflict decreased by 14.0% compared to the previous year, marking the first negative trend since 2009. In a number of high-activity countries, including Central African Republic, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia, conflict levels declined by more than 20% over one year.…

Sources of Income and Political Conflict

Strong state capacity is difficult to attain in low-income countries where the state lacks access to resources to aid in effectively implementing policies. As a result, incomes are often used as a proxy measurement to determine the strength of state capacity, and states with lower incomes experience some of the highest levels of conflict (see:…