Overview of Continental Trends 2016

African states experienced high rates of both political violence and protest in 2016 (see Figure 2). The aggregated totals are remarkably similar to those of 2015, which indicates three important lessons going forward: The crisis points on the continent- Libya, South Sudan, Somalia, and Nigeria- continue to produce significant violence, with substantial harm to civilians…

Libya – October 2016 Update

The number of conflict events recorded by ACLED in Libya remained stable throughout September 2016, exhibiting neither an overall increasing or decreasing trend. Whilst ostensibly this indicates relative stability in the conflict lifecycle (ACLED Crisis Blog, 10 June 2016), the underlying political dynamics were far from static, with a renewed offensive in the country’s East…

Tunisia — June 2016 Update

In 2016, Tunisia is experiencing increasing conflict activity in the southeast of the country. Figure 1 shows the distribution of political violence incidents across the Tunisian territory over the past twelve months, revealing how armed conflict has spread to the regions near the Libyan border. Whilst most conflict events are located around the western town…

Conflict Stabilisation in Libya

Recent analyses on Libya point to the potentially destabilising effects of a possible international intervention led by France, the United Kingdom, Italy and other regional powers. The race to liberate Sirte, seized by the Islamic State in February 2015, pits the rival domestic administrations and their respective fighting factions based in Tobruk and Tripoli. Official…

Libya — March 2016 Update

Levels of riots, protests and political violence in February remained relatively stable compared to the previous 6 months in Libya, with 71 riots, protests and politically-violent events recorded from 1 – 27 February (the 6-month average is just over 73 events per month). However, changes in the nature of armed clashes saw a significant increase…

Libya — January 2016 Update

Throughout 2015, multiple theatres of violence played out over the Libyan territory. Two prominent dynamics shaped the trajectories of violence in 2015, providing the foundation for the conflict patterns present in early 2016. The first was the continuation of violence between Operation Dignity and Operation Libya Dawn forces that led to the erosion of political…

African Overview 2015

In 2015, ACLED recorded 14,640 conflict events on the African continent. Armed conflict decreased by 14.0% compared to the previous year, marking the first negative trend since 2009. In a number of high-activity countries, including Central African Republic, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia, conflict levels declined by more than 20% over one year.…

Sources of Income and Political Conflict

Strong state capacity is difficult to attain in low-income countries where the state lacks access to resources to aid in effectively implementing policies. As a result, incomes are often used as a proxy measurement to determine the strength of state capacity, and states with lower incomes experience some of the highest levels of conflict (see:…

The Prospects of Islamic State Expansion into Africa & an Analysis of State and Non-State Actor Strategies

In November 2014, The Islamic State’s recruitment and propaganda publication ‘Dabiq’ announced a strategy to ‘remain’ and ‘expand’ (The Clarion Project, 21 November 2014) in order to consolidate its existing territorial presence whilst spreading the caliphate regionally, and eventually globally to promote disorder and disruption. To date, this stated objective has held true; the group…