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Violence against Civilians and Al Shabaab: Tactics of Internal Security and Distabilisation

Africa, Al Shabaab, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against CiviliansBy Caitriona Dowd 11 February 2015

Conflict event levels and reported fatalities fell slightly in Somalia in January. While violence overall has witnessed a gradual decline since a peak in July 2013, this has been punctuated by upswings in violence, and a concomitant increase in reported fatalities, suggesting an intensification of violent conflict (see Figure 1).… Details

Egypt: Developments in Political Violence Patterns Through a Comparative Analysis of the January 25th Protest Anniversaries

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Islamic State, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against CiviliansBy James Moody 11 February 2015

January saw heightened conflict activity in Egypt; a pattern that is evident in both 2013 and 2014. The over-whelming majority of these events can be understood as a resurgence of protests as demonstrators take to the streets during the week of the 25th January, the anniversary of the Arab Spring uprising.… Details

Inter-communal Conflict in Sudan

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against CiviliansBy Roudabeh Kishi 28 January 2015

Sudan continues to be one of the top three most violent countries in Africa, as well as one of the deadliest, in large part due to the violence in the Darfur region (the most violent subnational region in Africa in 2014).… Details

Counter-revolution, Autocracy, and Stability in Egypt in 2014

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Islamist Violence, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against CiviliansBy James Moody 28 January 2015

The most significant trend witnessed throughout 2014 in Egypt was the dramatic decline of riot and protest events nationwide (see Figure 1). Sweeping detentions of Muslim Brotherhood supporters, unconstitutional civilian and military trials, and the introduction of legislation that curtails representation has seen Egypt slip into a counter-revolution reminiscent of past regimes under Mubarak in the late 1980s, and Nasser’s government in the 1950’s (Origins, July 2014).… Details

Political Militias and Remote Violence in 2014

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Improvised Explosive Devices, Remote ViolenceBy Daniel Wigmore-Shepherd 28 January 2015

Version 5 of ACLED carries a new event type termed ‘Remote violence’. Remote violence is an event where a conflict actor engages another group while remaining spatially removed from the area of attack.… Details

Service-delivery demonstrations, political voice and elections in South Africa

Africa, Analysis, Rioting And ProtestsBy Daniel Wigmore-Shepherd 21 January 2015

South Africa was the seventh most active country in the ACLED dataset in 2014, in spite of lacking any form of armed insurgency or rebellion. This means that the form of conflict in South Africa differs drastically from countries with similar activity levels such as Libya and Sudan.… Details

A Review of Libya in 2014

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Governance, Islamist Violence, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against CiviliansBy James Moody 21 January 2015

Libya was the fourth most active and the sixth most violent country in the ACLED dataset with 2383 reported fatalities from battles and remote violence in 2014. The deterioration of security in Libya throughout 2014 has been characterized by a myriad of factional armed groups with complex competing claims and two divided governments mobilizing competing narratives in the pursuit of ‘political legitimacy’.… Details

Update of ACLED Resources on Boko Haram

Africa, Analysis, Boko Haram, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Violence Against CiviliansBy Daniel Wigmore-Shepherd 12 January 2015

Boko Haram continues to be one of the most high-profile and lethal conflict actor within the West Africa. The group has developed into a transnational actor and is active in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Mali and Niger.… Details

State Policy, Political Opportunity and Phases of Contentious Political Activity in Egypt

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Rioting And Protests, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against CiviliansBy James Moody 18 December 2014

A cursory glance at Egypt’s conflict landscape from the beginning of the revolutionary uprising would infer that overall, riots and protests have followed an upward trajectory with increased participation, mobilisation and dissent against the regime (see Figure 1).… Details

Tensions among soldiers in Ivory Coast

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Focus On Militias, Governance, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against CiviliansBy Andrea Carboni 10 December 2014

Contrary to the recent tensions in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast has experienced a period of relative stability in 2014. With the exception of an outbreak of violence in May 2014, when pro-Gbagbo militia fighters stormed the South-western village of Fetai killing three soldiers and ten civilians (Aboa, 2014), overall conflict levels and intensity have remained relatively low throughout much of the year.… Details