Uganda — November 2015 Update

Uganda has seen a steady increase in violence and protest throughout 2015, peaking in October with 46 events reported. October also saw nearly twice the number of conflict events as the second-most active month in 2015 (24 total events were reported in July) (see Figure 1), and each month had six conflict-related fatalities (see Figure 1).…

Al Shabaab in Tanzania: Current Status and Potential Future Patterns

Although Tanzania holds a reputation for peace and stability, the country has experienced an increase in violent Islamist-related activity in 2015. The most recent attack occurred on the 14th of April in the eastern Morogoro Region (see Figure 1), when a suspected Al Shabaab militant attacked a police officer with a machete.…

Violence against Civilians and Al Shabaab: Tactics of Internal Security and Distabilisation

Conflict event levels and reported fatalities fell slightly in Somalia in January. While violence overall has witnessed a gradual decline since a peak in July 2013, this has been punctuated by upswings in violence, and a concomitant increase in reported fatalities, suggesting an intensification of violent conflict (see Figure 1).…

Bombings, Explosives and Conflict Part 2: Weapons of the Weak? Remote Violence and the Relative Strength of Non-State Actors

Does the use of remote violence indicate weakness in a non-state conflict actor? Forms of ‘remote violence’, such as roadside bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), enable armed groups to attack targets that they do not have the capacity to face directly.…

Education and Political Conflict Part 2: Non-State Actor Strategies – A Focus on Boko Haram & Al Shabaab Conflict Dynamics

In February 2012, Boko Haram members burned down three schools in the town of Maiduguri in north-eastern Nigeria. The group claimed that the attack was provoked by indiscriminate student arrests in Islamic schools by state forces (IRIN, 4 October 2013).…