Regional Overview – Middle East 5 February 2018
The first month of 2018 has seen significant developments in several countries across the Middle East. Excluding Syria, the region as a whole saw a drop in the number of reported fatalities in January 2018, particularly in Yemen which fell from an annual high in December 2017 of over 2400 to just over 1800 in January 2018.…
Regional Overview – Africa 5 February 2018
Across Africa in January 2018, political violence and protest levels rebounded from the lull in December 2017. This regional pattern is predominantly driven by a 38.5% increase in protest levels, where regional coordination between movements is provoking tougher government responses in anti-TPLF protests in Ethiopia, as well as in Tunisia and South Africa.…
Yemen: The World’s Worst Humanitarian Crisis Enters Another Year
Four years after the Houthi takeover of the capital Sana’a and the beginning of the Saudi-led military intervention, there is little to suggest that Yemen will find peace in the near future.…
Nigeria – November 2017 Update
Violent activity in Nigeria continues to be active on two major fronts. Military forces have opened a substantial air campaign against Boko Haram in the north-east and Fulani militia violence remains frequent in the country’s middle belt.…
Conflict Summaries – October 2017
Burundi This month saw Burundi fall to the lowest level of events and second lowest reported fatality count since before the presidential elections in 2015. October 2017 also represents the continuation of a shorter term downward trend in fatalities from a 2017 high of 34 in each of June and July to 13 this month.…
Egypt – October 2017 Update
The last few months have seen the Islamic State’s Sinai Province carry out a number of attacks on security forces in the Sinai Peninsula, including a raid on an army checkpoint in the Al Barth area that killed at least 23 soldiers (The Guardian, 7 July 2017), and another which targeted a police convoy in the Bir Al-Abd area, killing at least 18 police officers and a driver (CBC, 11 September 2017).…
Nigeria – September 2017 Update
Boko Haram violence in Nigeria has decreased overall since the beginning of 2017 (see Figure 1). This may be attributed to the group’s 2016 organizational collapse in much of the country’s North-East; as a result, recent offensives have been limited guerrilla-style attacks against civilian and military targets.…
Emergency Rule and Insurgency in Egypt
Despite the overall decrease in conflict and protest events taking place in the country, Egypt continues to face a growing insurgency based in the North Sinai province. Since declaring allegiance to the Islamic State in November of 2014 the State of Sinai has launched numerous attacks against state forces and has claimed responsibility for a wave of bombings targeting Coptic Christians.…