In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bay of Bengal now faces another natural disaster: Cyclone Amphan. ACLED Research Director Dr. Roudabeh Kishi examines how the dual threats may impact disorder trends in the region.…
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In Africa last week, armed groups carried out attacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic despite previous calls for ceasefires; Boko Haram suffered significant losses as Nigerian and Nigerien forces launched operations across both countries; and demonstration levels continued to rise in northern Africa.…
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Last week, demonstrations continued in the Balkans, Southeastern Europe, and Eastern Europe, with about half of demonstrations relating to coronavirus. In some cases, demonstrations appear to be fueled by disinformation. Notable developments were the reduction of anti-government protests in Serbia and the resurgence of Serbian Orthodox demonstrations in Montenegro. …
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Last week in Central Asia and the Caucasus, conflict in Afghanistan resulted in a high number of civilian casualties, while the president and his long-standing rival finally signed a power-sharing agreement, prompting the Taliban to renew its call for prisoner releases.…
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Last week in the Middle East, key developments include: reduced fighting between Houthi and pro-Hadi forces in Yemen amid the coronavirus outbreak, but increased fighting between pro-Southern Transitional Council (STC) and pro-Hadi forces around the city of Zinjibar; a return to mass demonstrations in Iraq; increased Islamic State (IS) activity in Iraq and Syria; continued Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo; and more clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces in Palestine.…
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The number of demonstrations remained relatively unchanged in Central America and the Caribbean as coronavirus-related restrictions continue to disrupt daily activities. The number of battles remained high, while violence targeting civilians slightly decreased after a spike in mid-April.…
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Last week in South America, key developments include: demonstrations around the region over the economic impacts of the pandemic, as well as protests led by health workers; clashes involving the National Liberation Army (ELN) in Colombia; demonstrations in Bolivia calling for general elections; intensified indigenous militia activities in Chile; and demonstrations both for and against quarantine measures in Brazil, as well as continued armed clashes between criminal groups and state forces.…
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In Southeast Asia, key developments last week include: a clash in Myanmar in an area covered by the military’s recent unilateral ceasefire announcement; deadly fighting in the Philippines between state forces and communist rebels; and coronavirus related disorder in Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia.…
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After eight years of conflict in the Sahel, the international community remains primarily focused on the two main jihadi militant groups driving the sub-regional insurgency in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger: the Al Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).…
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Overview of Insurgency
The Cabo Delgado insurgency combines extremist religious influences with local political grievances to create a potent threat to Mozambican state control over much of the province.
Cabo Delgado is characterized by widespread socio-economic deprivation, but poverty was even more acute in neighboring provinces Nampula and Niassa just before the start of the conflict in 2017, according to the most recent official data.…
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