Ethiopia – January 2017 Update

The nearly 3,000 fatalities reported between November 2015 and January 2017 rocked Ethiopia and the international community. Unprecedented waves of popular mobilisation in the country mainly drove these trends. Since November 2016 however, the number of riots and protests significantly reduced, giving way to a political violence landscape now dominated by battles and violence against…

Conflict Trend Summaries 2016

Kenya Kenya saw a decrease in political violence and reported fatalities in 2016. The vast majority of fatalities in 2016 still came from Al Shabaab activity. The country also saw a spike in demonstrations in June over whether the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) should be reformed before the general elections of August 2017…

Democratic Republic of Congo – December 2016 Update

Over the course of 2016, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR-Congo) saw a rise in intensity of political violence, and the emergence of new trends. First, violence involving the ADF, FDLR and Mayi Mayi militias clustered in the Kivus and Orientale province and ethnic conflict between Bantus and Batwas, as well as Hutus and Nandes,…

South Africa – December 2016 Update

2016 represents the second most active year in the ACLED dataset for South Africa. Although conflict and protest event levels have decreased overall since 2015, 2016 has borne witness to several crucial events and trends which have had serious ramifications on the fabric of South African society. As Figure 1 demonstrates, protests and riots continued…

Sudan – December 2016 Update

With political violence levels at their second highest point since 1997 as per the ACLED dataset, Sudan placed itself as the fourth most active conflict country in Africa in 2016. Despite a slight decrease in the level of reported battles and violence against civilians compared to 2013 and 2014 respectively, the country saw a significant…

Central African Republic – December 2016 Update

The Central African Republic witnessed an encouraging overall decrease in lethal political violence during the first half of 2016. However, this was followed by a dramatic jump in violence from September to November which stems from the failure of the new regime in Bangui to forge a political settlement that appeals to the increasingly fractured…

South Sudan– November 2016 Update

Political violence in South Sudan continued to increase through October, reaching its highest point since the battles in July when violence re-erupted in the capital between the government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO). Since July, the spread of conflict remained localised to the Greater Equatoria region (see Figure 1).…

Egypt – November 2016 Update

Political violence and protest events in Egypt have been rising since August 2016, largely driven by two dynamics. First, protests have rebounded nationwide coinciding with a seven-year high inflation rate of 15.5 percent in August (NYTimes, 20 October 2016). Second, violence against civilians reached its highest level since February 2016 as kidnappings surged in North…

Ethiopia – November 2016 Update

ETwelve months after the beginning of the uprisings in the Oromia region, violence shows no sign of decreasing in Ethiopia. In its strenuous efforts to contain a wave of protest unseen for decades, the government has launched a violent crackdown that is estimated to have killed more than one thousand people over one year. Thousands…