The Break of Dawn? Shifting Interests and Opportunities in the Libya Dawn Bloc

Libya was the fifth most active country in the ACLED dataset in February 2015 with an average of 4 fatalities incurred for every conflict event (see Figure 1). The recent wave of attacks by Islamic State groups has prompted widespread discussion of the role of Islamist groups such as the Shura Council of Islamic Youth,…

ACLED Asia Data Release

ACLED Asia will release monthly real-time data for eleven states including India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar. Data for January and February 2015 are now available here. Figure 1: ACLED Asia Coverage and Recent Events ACLED data differs from available information on South and Southeast Asia in numerous…

Where’s ISIS in all this crisis?

The Egyptian air force’s bombing campaign in Libya’s eastern city of Derna on the 16th February in retaliation of the killing of 21 Coptic Egyptians has sought to raise fundamental questions over the extent and reach of the Islamic State’s presence in Libya.  Yet somewhat less explored is the impact the heightened activity by militants…

Protest and Shale Exploitation in Algeria

The lull in political conflict that Algeria has witnessed since May 2014 eventually terminated in January. Last month, the country saw the number of political conflict events triple  the levels of the previous period (see Figure 1). Riots and protests have rapidly spread across the country, involving rural, isolated areas in the south as well…

Egypt: Developments in Political Violence Patterns Through a Comparative Analysis of the January 25th Protest Anniversaries

January saw heightened conflict activity in Egypt; a pattern that is evident in both 2013 and 2014. The over-whelming majority of these events can be understood as a resurgence of protests as demonstrators take to the streets during the week of the 25th January, the anniversary of the Arab Spring uprising. January 2015 was no…

Inter-communal Conflict in Sudan

Sudan continues to be one of the top three most violent countries in Africa, as well as one of the deadliest, in large part due to the violence in the Darfur region (the most violent subnational region in Africa in 2014). Violence in this region began over a decade ago when groups began rebelling against…

A Review of Libya in 2014

Libya was the fourth most active and the sixth most violent country in the ACLED dataset with 2383 reported fatalities from battles and remote violence in 2014. The deterioration of security in Libya throughout 2014 has been characterized by a myriad of factional armed groups with complex competing claims and two divided governments mobilizing competing…

State Policy, Political Opportunity and Phases of Contentious Political Activity in Egypt

A cursory glance at Egypt’s conflict landscape from the beginning of the revolutionary uprising would infer that overall, riots and protests have followed an upward trajectory with increased participation, mobilisation and dissent against the regime (see Figure 1). However, the transformation of contentious politics in Egypt is best understood by conceptualising three distinct timeframes of…